MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc96411c100e0c2ac76b9512981dd8084e53b3396b4789809bdc5ffb7387a923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 2,243$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,001$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.43 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 56c | 896$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 71c | 618.07$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 254.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 205$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 198$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 13c | 191$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 55c | 170.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 146.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 121.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 108.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…523dbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Houston Astros | 56c | 88.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 67.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 48.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.