TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers74c4,174$3,087 inWon+$1,086.918,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros29c2,113$621 inLost-$621.472,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros26c1,040$270 inLost-$270.451,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Houston Astros21c1,040$218 inLost-$218.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros39c887.32$348 inLost-$347.5712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Texas Rangers60c684.07$408 inWon+$275.9333864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros59c239.2$141 inLost-$141.131,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers41c228.09$94 inWon+$134.588,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Texas Rangers70c215.79$150 inWon+$65.7957548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros36c205.94$74 inLost-$74.0410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers59c153$90 inWon+$62.734,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers75c90.64$68 inWon+$22.643,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Texas Rangers76c72.47$55 inWon+$17.7214353.1%76 W · 67 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros27c50$14 inLost-$13.748,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Houston Astros45c25.56$11 inLost-$11.544737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Texas Rangers75c24.67$19 inWon+$6.0820852.9%110 W · 98 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers67c21.84$15 inWon+$7.186,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Texas Rangers71c20.67$15 inWon+$6.0744648.7%217 W · 229 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Texas Rangers76c19.74$15 inWon+$4.749749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Texas Rangers53c19.15$10 inWon+$911155.9%62 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Texas Rangers75c17.19$13 inWon+$4.231,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Texas Rangers70c15.65$11 inWon+$4.76446.9%30 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.