MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2a69f538a8aff1fb2bb9fec90b2ea3689894d400f8d35d5ffd26b73e3a7730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 10,699$5,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,087.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Under | 53c | 9,644$5,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,538.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 57c | 5,658$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.24 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 4,227$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 3,871$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 1,457$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.69 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 1,293$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,278$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 54c | 1,185$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.21 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 563$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 539.29$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 513.91$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 43c | 429.93$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 36c | 339.43$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 303.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 296.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 59c | 254.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 58c | 193.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 56c | 192$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 184.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Over | 45c | 184.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 136.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 66c | 117.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 105.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 103.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 76.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 34c | 69.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 44c | 64.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 46c | 53.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 59c | 49.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 46.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 46.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Over | 27c | 45.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 69c | 42.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 63c | 34.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 63c | 30.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 46c | 22.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 61c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 61c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.