Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9cba42c9a29f9560820220be45496deae144c3a91e942383e0bf056ae362b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 41c | 276.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 5c | 259.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 245.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 240$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 160.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 159.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 135.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 16c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 113.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 73c | 106.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 71c | 103.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 34c | 97.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 96.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 96.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 95.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 74c | 94.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 84.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 26c | 66.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 34c | 65.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 65.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 40c | 60.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 56.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 55.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 49.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 48.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 27c | 41.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 33.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 65c | 25.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 67c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 80c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.