Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ecc588d1328206e7ac4058aa8991914724e990cd64d15fb9dadaef45885024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,343$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.09 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 20c | 516.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.17 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 327.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 317.34$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 259.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 34c | 246.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 230.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 71c | 199.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 37c | 187.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 178.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 6c | 169.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.37 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 65c | 165.66$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 16c | 147.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 21c | 134.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 115.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 115.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 29c | 93.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 90.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…2783backed Yes | 22c | 82.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 74.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 67.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 20c | 65.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 61c | 64.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 47c | 51.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 50c | 49.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 47.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 39.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 54c | 37.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 36.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 32.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 64c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 49c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 76c | 23.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.