Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccbbe011a934321cd8c182e6f85ba64109639bd518111c40e0273c197b5840b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 0c | 16,038$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,470$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 931.09$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.11 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 504.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 317.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 236.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 173.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 162.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 157.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 35c | 141.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 77c | 124.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 19c | 102.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 98.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 94.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 12c | 94.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 93.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 25c | 89.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 87.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 24c | 67.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 18c | 65.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 65.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…6ab2backed Yes | 18c | 59.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 57.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 54.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 77c | 29.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 70c | 25.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 22.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.