Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c26c4ebf72e81ecdfacfb808d93ea85ece16ec09a6f89397ab4d01d424e31f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 25c | 3,209$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 77c | 1,519$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.28 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 22c | 1,423$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 73c | 637.09$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 78c | 516$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 407$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 72c | 339.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 333.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 5c | 312.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 78c | 310.87$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 65c | 307.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 24c | 292.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 75c | 277.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 7c | 259$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 27c | 236.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 79c | 218.35$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 28c | 211.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 193.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed No | 20c | 174.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 174$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 65c | 167.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 166.9$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 141.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 15c | 130.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 14c | 127.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 76c | 102.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 97.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 87.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 21c | 87.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 86.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 86.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 22c | 83.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 77.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 77.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 32c | 74.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 69c | 72.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 71.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…fab2backed No | 28c | 70.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 34c | 68.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 67.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 20c | 63.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 63.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 51c | 57.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 32c | 56.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 37c | 56.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 69c | 53.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 34c | 53.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 74c | 52.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e7…0609backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…c4afbacked Yes | 79c | 49.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…fb8cbacked No | 31c | 48.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…7f1abacked Yes | 79c | 47.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 78c | 47.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 55c | 47.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 45.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 71c | 45.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 71c | 44.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked Yes | 63c | 40.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 64c | 33.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 32.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 79c | 31.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…ac4abacked No | 37c | 29.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…c579backed No | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 52cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 66c | 25.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 77c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…ec52backed Yes | 70c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked Yes | 74c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 75c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.