MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd320dc64b5e1c3e66b651ed34b94ab375eabdd2be0248b8b14743a6ebcf99e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 1,271$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 1,240$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 24c | 923.57$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 862.81$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 652.28$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.72 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 510.2$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 466.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 295.95$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 204.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 185.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 178.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.46 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 139.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 136.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 92.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 87.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…5ba3backed Chicago White Sox | 26c | 83.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 51.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 49.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…7e33backed Minnesota Twins | 22c | 44.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 41.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 38.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 26.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.