MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fbc8d4f0d61b1ff287aff058acbec6e027b02ee4b626ac3b355a80710ce093c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 18,000$9,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,279.99 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 13,353$6,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,487.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 13,064$6,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,036.38 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 47c | 10,247$4,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,815.98 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 49c | 8,701$4,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,263.64 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 53c | 7,777$4,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Under | 48c | 5,813$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.19 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 4,888$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 2,645$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,639$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 47c | 2,620$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.45 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 47c | 1,328$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.05 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 53c | 1,275$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.23 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 743.27$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.97 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 54c | 508.7$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 483$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 330.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 303.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 54c | 274$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 51c | 260.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 228.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 228.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Over | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 46c | 145.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 119.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 114$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 91.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 91.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…6f72backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 85.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 46c | 76.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 54c | 69.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 51c | 66.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 58.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 54c | 56.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 47c | 53.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 46c | 49.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 53c | 47.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 50c | 38.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 46c | 37.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 53c | 36.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 36.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 53c | 35.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 53c | 35.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 46c | 33.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 45c | 30.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 45c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 54c | 25.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 58c | 23.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…4a45backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.