Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcced68a701711f6db064dbf2602ba147ef782bd57b833d8cce0b4f1a0c412bcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Dallasof FC Dallas, Real Salt Lake
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12e…a14abacked Real Salt Lake | 50c | 2,596$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed FC Dallas | 18c | 2,173$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.12 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +14.3wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +225.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked FC Dallas | 50c | 399.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FC Dallas | 45c | 277.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Salt Lake | 51c | 219.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked FC Dallas | 50c | 199.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked FC Dallas | 54c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +361.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Real Salt Lake | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Real Salt Lake | 51c | 54.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Real Salt Lake | 55c | 49.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…93a7backed FC Dallas | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…3543backed FC Dallas | 80c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed FC Dallas | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed FC Dallas | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Dallas | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked FC Dallas | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)this page
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.