Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89dc06f80d8670e5b5bd2d65108f8e6df657f54971c09a7ee00456fbb6356a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 51c | 2,546$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.13 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 1,590$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.61 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 1,067$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 781$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…93a7backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 357.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.56 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 282$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 279.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.18 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 59c | 242.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 40c | 161.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 41c | 157.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 41c | 157.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 63c | 121.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 111.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 96.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…2650backed Under | 66c | 74.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 29c | 63.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 59c | 43.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 37c | 30.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 46c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.