Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddae441ea52c967745dc7c8c5c133e800187171e69bfb466db67cb8d2cb18df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 1,299$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 12c | 832.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 21c | 725.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 79c | 652.27$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 80c | 190.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 77c | 136.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 114.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Under | 14c | 88.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 19c | 74.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 30c | 71.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 66c | 69.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 27c | 43.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 31.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…efd1backed Under | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.