Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd533c13f858a0e5cd73757946660d1a6d8fedf8f673dd7c8b3989788f2ec5735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 488.02$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.51 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 398.15$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 33c | 326.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 48c | 268.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 172.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 144$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 58c | 118.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 57c | 73.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 48c | 66.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 79cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 46c | 58.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…77cdbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 43.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 34c | 38.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 60c | 36.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 33.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…eababacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 43c | 30.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 71c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 63cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.