China Taiwan · resolved market
RedNote removed from App Store before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd298e619ded3a2b6a1778c7ec0566cb7c67fb46586c6be7559ffc53288c3e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 18c | 1,131$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…8645backed Yes | 19c | 900.59$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 20c | 504.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9d…3a63backed Yes | 12c | 502.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 363.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 316.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…a190backed Yes | 15c | 293.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 245$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…8d5abacked Yes | 15c | 202.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 199.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 30c | 196.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 190.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 25c | 180.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…0cdabacked Yes | 15c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yes | 16c | 159.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 75c | 151.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…44e9backed Yes | 15c | 151.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…7fcdbacked Yes | 8c | 127.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 20c | 127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…01adbacked Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 114.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb896…7c20backed Yes | 27c | 110.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 71c | 110.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…90d2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…0209backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…6361backed Yes | 23c | 87.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 73.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a9…18cfbacked No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 80c | 52.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed No | 80c | 48.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 62c | 42.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…056bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 78c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.