Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd35572beb9272aafef1df5eded09b5715ce94c1db795d07d4cb560439c5f77c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 1,819$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,510$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 57c | 1,398$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.32 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 2c | 589.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 444.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 44c | 260.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 227.79$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 15c | 191.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 18c | 169.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 131.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 9c | 115.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 55c | 112.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 86.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 81.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 80.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 76.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 45c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 64.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 28c | 52.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 43.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 38.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 36.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 31.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 22.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 66c | 19.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 80c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.