Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9caa0f36ff1f13c431055c66f248e809099f76519e28aeafb94eb0eea1274ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 47c | 1,501$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.75 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 3c | 880$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 507$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 330.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 272.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 55c | 271$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 46c | 207$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 10c | 202.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 197.92$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 177.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 166.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 63c | 158.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed No | 40c | 126.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 122.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 115.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 114.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…dfd5backed No | 9c | 113.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 107.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 94.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 17c | 94.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 67c | 93.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 46c | 89.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 88.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 85.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 68.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 65.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 65.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 54.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 54.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 48c | 52.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 55c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 52c | 44.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 42.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 37.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 57c | 36.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 62c | 36.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 34.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 63c | 28.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 63c | 28.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…4211backed Yes | 42c | 28.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 54c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 54c | 27.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 50c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 23.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 22.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 61c | 22.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 21.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 61c | 21.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…019fbacked Yes | 62c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.