Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd96977395339c5fac9965e7829559317f3e4a8bf0e95a793f705ce5b185f0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,050$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…e39bbacked Yes | 2c | 915.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 525.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 284$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 277.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 45c | 260.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 184.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 181.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 77c | 155.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 143.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 141.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 134.16$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 127.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 52c | 124.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 124.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 60c | 123.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 61c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 17c | 84.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 76.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 66.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 41c | 63.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Yes | 38c | 61.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 55.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 77c | 54.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 53.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 53c | 53.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 33c | 50.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 50.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 48.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 31c | 48.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 58c | 43.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed Yes | 30c | 42.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 43c | 41.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 40.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…6f15backed No | 63c | 40.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 55c | 40.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 77c | 40.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 70c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…df3fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed Yes | 35c | 28.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 55c | 28.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…111dbacked Yes | 41c | 27.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 51c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a87…6aa7backed Yes | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 75c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 68c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 17.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked No | 68c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.