Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a5358f84ec379321f03cb5b5e1850e5dbc7ecdf1425c81557b9033404282c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 0c | 29,881$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,370$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.38 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 1c | 1,058$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 30c | 931.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.67 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 752.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 78c | 510.59$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 55c | 509.47$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.93 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 468.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 36c | 376.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 368.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 72c | 363.2$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.9 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 293.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 288.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 286.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 24c | 276.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 16c | 256.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 250.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.94 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 249.16$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 31c | 232.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 19c | 217.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 214$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed Yes | 24c | 206.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 201.17$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 198.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 35c | 178.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 159.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 42c | 158.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 12c | 156.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 150.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…f3cdbacked No | 73c | 145.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 143.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 26c | 142$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 75c | 133.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 20c | 133.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 37c | 112.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes | 29c | 103.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 101.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 18c | 101$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 98.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 95.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…7452backed Yes | 34c | 94.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 76c | 92.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 23c | 85.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 30c | 83.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked No | 24c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 28c | 74.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…a2a1backed Yes | 22c | 68.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 32c | 61.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 78c | 59.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 56.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 54.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c9…1936backed Yes | 25c | 54.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 54.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 79c | 51.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…3ccebacked Yes | 26c | 51.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…daadbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a37…180cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 32c | 49.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 35c | 49.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 48.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 57c | 47.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 46.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 45.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 32c | 41.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 58c | 40.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 40.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…f4dbbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…54c8backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 38.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 38.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…a2d6backed No | 63c | 36.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…c284backed No | 78c | 31.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 50c | 29.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed No | 78c | 28.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…baf4backed Yes | 52c | 27.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 61c | 24.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 74c | 23.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…4df2backed Yes | 58c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.