TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x331b…193fbacked No0c29,881$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes40c1,370$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.3843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked No1c1,058$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1810043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes30c931.67$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.6711930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No6c752.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9169520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked No78c510.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No55c509.47$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.9334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c468.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.511,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes36c376.36$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1528737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c368.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1558…4f75backed No72c363.2$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.94271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No44c300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.217243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No79c293.92$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.131,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes6c288.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes19c286.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.642,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes24c276.13$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.4521448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes16c256.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.745843.1%25 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes17c250.73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9455919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c249.16$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.333,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacba…5ce7backed Yes31c232.51$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.923122.6%7 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes19c217.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7625536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c214$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.452,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7482…6cf6backed Yes24c206.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.063534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c201.17$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.343,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes26c198.03$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes35c178.2$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1332830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes32c159.7$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.031,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes42c158.39$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8724149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8179…6b12backed Yes12c156.25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.852615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No79c150.52$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4634970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1914338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3147…f3cdbacked No73c145.44$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No69c143.75$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes26c142$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.483636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…4c6dbacked No75c133.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.743070%21 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes20c133.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3418316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes37c120$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1466543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes37c112.26$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.94047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbe…39b6backed Yes29c103.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.39850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes24c102.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.557719.5%15 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No73c101.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.121,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eec…9d96backed Yes18c101$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.111942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9046733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c98.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes14c95.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.021,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80f1…7452backed Yes34c94.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No76c92.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c90$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f33…8da9backed Yes23c85.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.399944.4%44 W · 55 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2bbe…e620backed Yes30c83.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.165143.1%22 W · 29 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfad4…379bbacked No24c76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.863324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…3152backed No60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512073.3%88 W · 32 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e6a…5192backed Yes28c74.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.568740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf8…a2a1backed Yes22c68.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Yes32c61.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes78c59.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c56.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes36c54.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.853540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c9…1936backed Yes25c54.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No58c54.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa306…9802backed No79c51.85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.992944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa77…3ccebacked Yes26c51.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+142.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1104…daadbacked No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3854232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a37…180cbacked Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No32c49.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0834319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes35c49.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9229469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes32c49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.325129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c48.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ad…95eebacked No63c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.341872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5117…1241backed No57c47.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-54.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes26c46.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1652533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No74c45.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3217978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes32c41.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4316465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed No58c40.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.781656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No68c40.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.422,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73cc…f4dbbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e6…54c8backed Yes26c39.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No57c38.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.141,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes64c38.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.961659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5ba5…a2d6backed No63c36.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe577…c284backed No78c31.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes62c30.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6e…b651backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34667.4%31 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dfe…b4f9backed No50c29.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.536550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9435…e478backed No78c28.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe659…baf4backed Yes52c27.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.059048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No72c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e2…b1a9backed No61c24.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No74c23.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.217552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No65c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.266643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001e…4df2backed Yes58c20.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd266…f250backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.