Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda3dcf90368788270df257f001288d47f1bb401a5fc48ba56e74d0da8e21b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 31c | 784.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 385.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 192.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 180.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 78c | 132.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 12c | 120.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 117.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 108.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 108.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 93.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 89.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 88.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 77.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 23c | 73.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 21c | 70.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 53.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 78c | 49.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 45.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1ba2backed Yes | 24c | 42.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…a8bdbacked Yes | 26c | 38.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 29.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 79c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.