Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdabd30fb049e07f367152b5cd7fdce1db50d95ec9f477d6c58e8a5ad8a9bd3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 80c | 328$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 22c | 327.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed Yes | 34c | 298.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 18c | 212.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 211.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 9c | 206.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 22c | 149.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 76c | 127.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…9fa7backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…bc11backed Yes | 17c | 115.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 26c | 103.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 101.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 99.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f60…a419backed Yes | 25c | 99.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 88.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 71.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 29c | 70.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 29c | 69.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 72c | 60.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…9e38backed No | 75c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 76c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.