Earnings · resolved market
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb1a38de3470c5ba12171a7015866daa072408190bd6c7598ba47609ba99ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 74c | 584.07$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 33c | 541.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.87 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 45c | 331.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 36c | 204.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 30c | 201.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 199.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 66c | 198$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…613ebacked Yes | 70c | 154.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 36c | 112$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 48c | 98.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 60.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 75c | 51.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked Yes | 64c | 48.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 39c | 46.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 69c | 43.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…28e4backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…cea0backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 71c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked Yes | 64c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…4972backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.