Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb60b7a8813a36f19221c8f76972b893d6607225c29adb2b4602ed43d4470e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 56c | 1,530$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.75 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 737.4$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.97 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 690.65$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 410.22$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 268.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 185.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 183.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 172.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 39c | 154.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 152.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 61c | 129.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 129.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 119.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 111.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 109$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 98.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 94.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 94.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 68c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 67.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 58.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 32c | 57.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 55c | 53.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 53c | 50.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 47.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 34c | 45.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 44.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 43.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 70c | 40.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked No | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 51c | 32.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 41c | 31.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 28.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 28.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 24.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 65c | 23.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 55c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 60c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51b0…cc9cbacked Yes | 77c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.