South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-02-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce0fb6cadd44f2a2053f89b9c3882deb98a3fe62209aeb97ccf7653179a37554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 24c | 8,280$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.92 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,279$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.83 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,865$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,781$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.09 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 2c | 723.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 25c | 538.12$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 25c | 483.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed No | 72c | 412.07$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 75c | 306$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 286.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 27c | 179.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 7c | 148.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 76c | 137.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a78…1e03backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…f89dbacked No | 75c | 113$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…10e6backed Yes | 26c | 96.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 69.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4f…7b2dbacked No | 75c | 42.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.48per pick | 62cpaid | -81%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05c…64bdbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7c83backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…6b26backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 76c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-02-25?this page
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-02-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.