Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1392215f8ca838a41ff77090507bb1ab0e2d911b1b563b3681a561bea5d52d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 20c | 676.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 4c | 655$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 22c | 457.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 421.47$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 19c | 300.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 21c | 299.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 16c | 214.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 196.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 171.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 16c | 169.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 11c | 166.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 20c | 154.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 22c | 143$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 77c | 129.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 113.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 15c | 109.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 105.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 103.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 98.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 95.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 16c | 95.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 92.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 87.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 84.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 76c | 84.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 13c | 75.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e90…ff76backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 62.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 20c | 51.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 22c | 45.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 23.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 22.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.