Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d75b3b10e5b32c5f96d85e4bf4dc37d6261ff11f43d40e019dca10a9839469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 41c | 1,210$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.54 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 825.69$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 665.53$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 511.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 413.92$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 408.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 42c | 405.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 394.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 387.19$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 363.07$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 352.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 343.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 302.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 16c | 279.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 267.76$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 240$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 13c | 230.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 230.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 5c | 228.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 58c | 212.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 41c | 206.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 80c | 182.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 180.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 24c | 174$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 172.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 163.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 159.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed Yes | 7c | 157.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 151.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 135.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 124.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 118.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 114.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 110.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 13c | 110.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 64c | 109.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 107.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 103.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 33c | 103.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 102.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 46c | 102.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 98.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…f736backed Yes | 45c | 89.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 16c | 87.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 85.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 27c | 71.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 64.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 57.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 57.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 35c | 51.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 31c | 47.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…58f2backed No | 67c | 46.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 43.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 42.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 42.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 41.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 39.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 40c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 35.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 77c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7672backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 24.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c58…22e2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.