Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a031949dda8dc9e2113ae809931173b7494a96bd15d912e4bec23ed6ccdfcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 1,356$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 544.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 529.91$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 511.28$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 500$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 31c | 491.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 457.66$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 423.39$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 17c | 418.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 12c | 411.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 35c | 386.08$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 377.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 60c | 368.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 349.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 340.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 329.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 300$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 285.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 274.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 17c | 265.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 251.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 217.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 31c | 203.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.55 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 182.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 179$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 168.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 162.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 40c | 151.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 150.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 18c | 144.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 66c | 141.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 54c | 132.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 125.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 76c | 118.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 21c | 117$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed Yes | 32c | 110.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 10c | 103.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 63c | 101.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 99.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No | 63c | 92.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 17c | 90.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 21c | 83.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 83.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 80.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 80.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 64c | 78.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 71.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 70.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed No | 31c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 69.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 67.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 21c | 65.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 70c | 63.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 79c | 62.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 61.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 70c | 56.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 21c | 56.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 54.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 54.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked Yes | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 48.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 31c | 45.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 26c | 44.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 28c | 44.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 44.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 44.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 78c | 42.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 40.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Yes | 48c | 40.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 34c | 39.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 29c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 35.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.