College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce67c2ea033df35778f99a2030fea0080bcd86c80d6a24254f7f5feb9d4116eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Stateof Arizona State, Colorado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Colorado | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,200 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Arizona State | 46c | 22,200$10,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,988.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Arizona State | 47c | 10,943$5,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,810.22 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arizona State | 46c | 8,770$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.71 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Colorado | 53c | 8,312$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,405.11 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Colorado | 55c | 2,750$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Arizona State | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.89 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado | 53c | 1,803$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.67 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Arizona State | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colorado | 49c | 430$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Arizona State | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Arizona State | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Arizona State | 46c | 216.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Colorado | 54c | 186$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Arizona State | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Arizona State | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arizona State | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Arizona State | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Colorado | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Colorado | 53c | 69.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Arizona State | 47c | 53.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Colorado | 55c | 33.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colorado | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Colorado | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)this page
- Arizona State vs. ColoradoArizona State won
- Arizona State vs. Colorado: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.