TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,193,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,193,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1686…9d13backed Yes0c13,161$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243e…0ff9backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d68…3ba2backed Yes0c13,065$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503b…2cadbacked Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8f…3b96backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3139…7ff3backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…ce27backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…b669backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe79c…e744backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e0…36a8backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f00…ee56backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6b…3652backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb58a…c260backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d92…1ec3backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf61…36e2backed Yes0c13,065$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c83…3b34backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bd…47cbbacked Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6390…2da9backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d38…8fd5backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a5…5075backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adf…30e6backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…b2cebacked Yes0c13,065$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9684…ffaabacked Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3231…e176backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f1…16adbacked Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be7…a722backed Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804e…a9adbacked Yes0c13,065$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…5f59backed Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…ac5fbacked Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f3…a924backed Yes0c13,065$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4857…f1cabacked Yes0c13,065$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfe…125fbacked Yes0c13,065$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fea…b5bdbacked Yes0c13,065$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb559…0cb7backed Yes0c12,999$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3428…1c71backed Yes0c12,920$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ee…4104backed Yes0c12,920$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd8…380cbacked Yes0c12,797$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4154…ff71backed Yes0c12,795$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd87…8345backed Yes0c12,756$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bc…9ec0backed Yes0c12,754$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9617…fa56backed Yes0c12,754$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bfe…f79ebacked Yes0c12,750$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190b…1b91backed Yes0c12,750$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2126…ebc9backed Yes0c12,730$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9599…4909backed Yes0c12,730$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f1…0483backed Yes0c12,728$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0168…9a67backed Yes0c12,728$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8b…1d7dbacked Yes0c12,728$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc5…dca4backed Yes0c12,728$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc490…f420backed Yes0c12,728$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c5…1852backed Yes0c12,728$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bb…ac8ebacked Yes0c12,701$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…7862backed Yes0c12,690$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d2…3838backed Yes0c12,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c7…52fabacked Yes0c12,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68df…4b6cbacked Yes0c12,690$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c4…9799backed Yes0c12,690$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ec…2836backed Yes0c12,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…ffcfbacked Yes0c12,690$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab82…c189backed Yes0c12,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8197…5447backed Yes0c12,690$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9a…7a4cbacked Yes0c12,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0f…785fbacked Yes0c12,687$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…1562backed Yes0c12,637$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…0c31backed Yes0c12,637$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5376…22fcbacked Yes0c12,637$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5928backed Yes0c12,637$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a3…b337backed Yes0c12,637$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…c9fabacked Yes0c12,637$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd8…3460backed Yes0c12,637$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2215…5f4dbacked Yes0c12,637$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26bb…a2ffbacked Yes0c12,518$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ab…ecb0backed Yes0c12,490$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4267…7bcabacked Yes0c12,447$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd761…fd9ebacked Yes0c12,447$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac7…d1fabacked Yes0c12,447$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb636…7a46backed Yes0c12,268$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…5edebacked Yes0c12,268$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…3d32backed Yes0c12,268$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958c…ec3fbacked Yes0c12,211$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6c…4bc5backed Yes0c12,177$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe745…453cbacked Yes0c12,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc7…c452backed Yes0c11,780$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de0…a0e3backed Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75f…a3cfbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f5…a103backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe666…cbbfbacked Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a74…1788backed Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d41…80fabacked Yes0c8,714$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe19f…773abacked Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.