World Politics · resolved market
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744e180f08a452abb2917dba5be6a915ea7079994fd9006e19aed0f5ac88a52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $538,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $628,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x381b…e2d3backed Yes | 0c | 278,356$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…30acbacked Yes | 0c | 10,590$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,665$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 12c | 3,148$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 3c | 1,958$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dd…bcb9backed Yes | 2c | 1,744$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…9237backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…cbabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,689$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…c99fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,683$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…3c9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,667$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af0…46a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,664$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15d…fe7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,659$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…4345backed Yes | 1c | 1,642$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…14e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,628$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…cbe5backed Yes | 2c | 1,619$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…bb6bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,555$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,515$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…9fefbacked Yes | 3c | 1,413$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…0968backed Yes | 3c | 1,397$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,342$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,221$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…2117backed Yes | 1c | 1,019$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 1c | 987.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…b261backed Yes | 1c | 955$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 696.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 617.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked No | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 394$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 153 | 15%23 W · 130 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 13c | 314.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +11.7wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 22cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 95.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 994 | 17.2%171 W · 823 L | -149.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?this page
- Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?Yes won
- Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.