World Politics · resolved market
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c7e75579ebc7dd442e3a0bc40e47cbfcb641666ad3f8ea0bea24ae51d7523a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2812…ff49backed Yes | 3c | 18,787$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…fda1backed Yes | 3c | 10,402$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,560$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 15c | 3,523$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,496$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.75 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…508fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,292$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed Yes | 6c | 1,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Yes | 8c | 1,523$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,404$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,202$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…0d6bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,179$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes | 15c | 928.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5e…4046backed Yes | 25c | 855.9$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 787.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d7…d159backed Yes | 27c | 748.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Yes | 22c | 651.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 15c | 604.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 503.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 14c | 499.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 480.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 447.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 79c | 397.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698c…0208backed Yes | 14c | 343.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a38…0437backed Yes | 16c | 343.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…8e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 325.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 13c | 299.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…526bbacked Yes | 18c | 275.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b0…4fbcbacked Yes | 5c | 253.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaf…f2bdbacked Yes | 11c | 245.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…6cd5backed Yes | 4c | 235.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 18c | 224.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Yes | 22c | 214.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e7f6backed Yes | 17c | 194.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…f270backed Yes | 8c | 188.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…8b00backed Yes | 15c | 177.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…b664backed Yes | 17c | 164.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Yes | 14c | 153.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 15c | 123.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…6bc4backed Yes | 21c | 105.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…7c9cbacked Yes | 21c | 103.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…144dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1426…ed4abacked Yes | 13c | 98.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 18c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 95.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 91.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…06cebacked Yes | 20c | 60.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 80c | 53.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 47.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?this page
- Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?Yes won
- Will Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Janet Horner win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
- Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.