TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$619,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$564,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $619,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c14,664$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16410%0 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,810$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.544440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,124$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.791691.8%3 W · 166 L+0.8wins0.00per pick1cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e1…4774backed Yes4c4,424$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c0…93bebacked Yes6c3,762$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6830…d484backed Yes4c3,689$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Yes2c3,611$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5956…c62abacked Yes4c3,482$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa245…d248backed Yes4c3,393$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7969…c31cbacked Yes4c3,374$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e07…bf5ebacked Yes4c3,322$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf669…4d34backed Yes4c3,165$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ea…206cbacked Yes4c3,124$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+350.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbb…53c4backed Yes6c3,058$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0882…f91bbacked Yes4c2,900$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a7…7dc5backed Yes4c2,801$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+262.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0985…f3f8backed Yes4c2,720$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b5…8c40backed Yes4c2,661$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ce7…9135backed Yes4c2,640$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3897…ea4bbacked Yes4c2,633$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x947d…0d45backed Yes4c2,583$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be3…a4cabacked Yes4c2,483$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3992…5f56backed Yes4c2,435$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb461…a7bebacked Yes4c2,375$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e51…c1babacked Yes4c2,350$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ac…5bc0backed Yes4c2,317$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…a1c0backed Yes4c2,316$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0813…59bfbacked Yes4c2,288$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b53…99f4backed Yes10c2,282$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…ceedbacked Yes4c2,269$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd35…93debacked Yes6c2,240$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a0…05f8backed Yes4c2,123$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+217.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5f…76a5backed Yes4c2,091$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6d…f375backed Yes4c2,084$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c6…214dbacked Yes5c1,960$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f5…878dbacked Yes4c1,947$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe79b…d1a5backed Yes4c1,922$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2180…9009backed Yes4c1,909$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x683f…27dbbacked Yes4c1,882$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b99…fe54backed Yes4c1,881$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83f2…ff54backed Yes5c1,859$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7556…fd1ebacked Yes4c1,845$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1b…2031backed Yes6c1,807$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb37…4338backed Yes4c1,783$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc245…4aa6backed Yes4c1,774$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635e…9cf4backed Yes6c1,754$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6469…b29bbacked Yes4c1,749$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+777.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c01…276cbacked Yes4c1,719$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7abc…4b1dbacked Yes4c1,712$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+214.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,711$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.711,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f4…05cbbacked Yes4c1,707$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1289…38a0backed Yes6c1,695$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541e…84fcbacked Yes4c1,621$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd393…03c9backed Yes6c1,586$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…ac5dbacked Yes4c1,581$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf4d…3f89backed Yes4c1,552$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b09…f612backed Yes4c1,544$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e86…03b5backed Yes4c1,535$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…c02bbacked Yes4c1,507$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…1032backed Yes4c1,490$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae9…6aaebacked Yes4c1,458$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc119…2157backed Yes4c1,439$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a4…824bbacked Yes4c1,412$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac14…18cabacked Yes4c1,386$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+420.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5736…1d4ebacked Yes4c1,371$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…1639backed Yes4c1,368$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7b…8a77backed Yes4c1,362$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d0…be49backed Yes4c1,350$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…2d8fbacked Yes4c1,350$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f2…99afbacked Yes4c1,341$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…3858backed Yes4c1,323$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes8c1,318$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-47.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x179c…6c4ebacked Yes4c1,317$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes10c1,311$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e74…cd4cbacked Yes4c1,307$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbf…9941backed Yes4c1,295$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…4964backed Yes4c1,294$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+449.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c1,293$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.321357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce54…f562backed Yes4c1,290$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8881…9a2fbacked Yes4c1,276$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ba…e0a2backed Yes4c1,270$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1740…7765backed Yes4c1,262$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e17…4e55backed Yes4c1,260$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e4…2cfbbacked Yes4c1,239$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…d1d9backed Yes4c1,207$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…f054backed Yes4c1,196$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x264f…a7eebacked Yes4c1,192$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7b3…33b6backed Yes5c1,163$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf667…2c66backed Yes4c1,162$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d6…675dbacked Yes4c1,133$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcc…9f4bbacked Yes4c1,100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,094$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.642543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d3a…b31ebacked Yes4c1,085$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed5…f2e7backed Yes4c1,061$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c1,037$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.241664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa07…7e09backed Yes4c1,030$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866a…fbaebacked Yes4c1,023$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,022$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1219315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d9…2999backed Yes4c1,015$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked Yes5c999.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.