NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea0d4c6de1475b7b297fc2596d71ce47b2b2713675afe4a280302b696e8eafc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Stars, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 28c | 836$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Utah | 72c | 693.97$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stars | 46c | 368.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Utah | 71c | 304.16$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah | 48c | 219$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Stars | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Utah | 66c | 136$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Stars | 25c | 109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Utah | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Stars | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Utah | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…bc60backed Stars | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Utah | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Stars | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Stars | 42c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Utah | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Utah | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked Utah | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Stars | 70c | 22.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Utah | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Utah | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. UtahStars won
- Stars vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.