Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea0d7f44172a403d070419e60eed36747da8aa906acaf8a08c3fa6338ec1ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 6,389$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290.28 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 66c | 3,024$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 24c | 2,416$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.1 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 1,622$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.84 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 62c | 1,313$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 11c | 1,189$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.78 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 66c | 695.33$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 78c | 362.28$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 56c | 306.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 38c | 263.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 171.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 9c | 171.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 135$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 11c | 112.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…07aebacked Under | 63c | 47.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 73c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 73c | 27.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…0534backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 43c | 24.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…9d69backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.