Asian League · resolved market
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0612576fb145e0ac72c0f5b44ac9c1b44cba658f9d94af6477b9a8bfaf14c2d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4852…67c4backed Under | 56c | 8,004$4,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,482 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Over | 44c | 1,998$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…9c2cbacked Under | 55c | 1,924$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.98 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 44c | 910$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 16c | 518.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 44c | 499.96$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.98 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 481.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 215 | 52.1%112 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 386.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.34 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 15c | 326.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 44c | 260$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 44c | 260$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 45c | 188.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 179.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 161.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 99.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 45c | 68.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…f050backed Under | 56c | 31.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…01fdbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 56c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5this page
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.