Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcecc1d5ec020d10fe779cae167decb79c934d761625bd1279ca841e6e85e073e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 2,248$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 1,197$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 640$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Tundra Esports | 79c | 631.36$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 590.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 567.41$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.55 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tundra Esports | 79c | 548.46$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 452.9$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 368$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 344$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 250$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 222.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Tundra Esports | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 126.58$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 74.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy | 18c | 55.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…544abacked Tundra Esports | 78c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.