Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ce51d471a566349030d7b17de2e04255e8cf4a596c9dcad6cdf9525f18ae58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 2,680$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.54 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 2,566$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.7 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 2,028$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.73 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 1,827$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.52 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 1,663$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.42 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 1,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 1,156$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.56 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 926.06$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 851.5$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 834.32$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.95 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 772.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 710.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 551.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.84 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 367.78$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 295$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 286.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Tundra Esports | 80c | 192.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.