Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Looking for Org (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced32407703770c423188c8fc177ad5ad465a28a457fcaf6f32b5b87fa8c8f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Looking for Orgof Amaru Gaming, Looking for Org
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9024…a444backed Amaru Gaming | 2c | 5,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Amaru Gaming | 19c | 788.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Looking for Org | 76c | 612.06$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Amaru Gaming | 38c | 456.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.41 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Amaru Gaming | 38c | 318.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Amaru Gaming | 40c | 289.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Amaru Gaming | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Amaru Gaming | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Amaru Gaming | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Looking for Org | 58c | 197.02$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Amaru Gaming | 32c | 103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Looking for Org | 49c | 101.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Amaru Gaming | 73c | 89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…304dbacked Looking for Org | 70c | 88.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Amaru Gaming | 42c | 84.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Amaru Gaming | 38c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Amaru Gaming | 60c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b3f4backed Looking for Org | 67c | 58.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Looking for Org | 77c | 52.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Looking for Org (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Looking for Org - Game 2 WinnerLooking for Org won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.