South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced7a3300815ed4ea2941db0159033d12358fc486580a97363f0199b6084eef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Yes | 35c | 7,405$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800.36 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 32c | 4,300$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 3,842$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.23 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 1,679$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.24 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 32c | 1,283$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.17 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 46c | 1,096$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 35c | 1,087$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.15 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 42c | 935.08$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.66 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 34c | 735.66$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 313.15$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.2 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 64c | 268.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 38c | 229.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 62c | 184.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 36c | 180$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 39c | 158.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 156.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…0d10backed Yes | 32c | 154.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 65c | 151.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 32c | 143.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…671abacked Yes | 31c | 129.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed Yes | 34c | 126.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 55c | 103.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 35c | 100.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Yes | 32c | 81.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 75.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 65.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…3173backed Yes | 32c | 61.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…5fbebacked Yes | 59c | 50.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 31c | 50.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 61c | 41.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 32c | 40.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Yes | 63c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 61c | 33.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…20dfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…193cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 25.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Yes | 59c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 63c | 15.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-26?this page
- Will Coritiba FBC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-02-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.