NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcedfc76474c8087652b61d56eee982419ddbe263e23b4ea749d0ff8ad5376b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Canadiens, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Canadiens | 35c | 6,767$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.45 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Sabres | 65c | 2,890$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.5 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Sabres | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sabres | 67c | 953.61$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.69 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Sabres | 65c | 760.7$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Canadiens | 33c | 606.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Canadiens | 33c | 454.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sabres | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Canadiens | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sabres | 67c | 237.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sabres | 65c | 215.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Sabres | 65c | 184.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Sabres | 67c | 152.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…c282backed Canadiens | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Sabres | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabres | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Canadiens | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Canadiens | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Sabres | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Sabres | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Canadiens | 35c | 50.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Sabres | 65c | 50.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Canadiens | 32c | 38.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Canadiens | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked Sabres | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Sabres | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. CanadiensSabres won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.