Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcefa3bf47e3ae9325b8254c1bba312f72dcbacc5fec53f7dd178e12c966afdad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 3c | 664.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 593.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 577$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 4c | 567.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 77c | 438.8$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 2c | 406.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 394.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.41 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 353.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 5c | 342.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 330.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed No | 80c | 242.88$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 225.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 209.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 187.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 60c | 169$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 27c | 148.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 22c | 147.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 132.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 33c | 132.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 120.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 56c | 119.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 117.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 103.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 73c | 102.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 25c | 98.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 86.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 35c | 85.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 35c | 85.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 30c | 83.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 33c | 78.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 29c | 68.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 31c | 65.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 61.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 30c | 58.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 69c | 55.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 31c | 55.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 43.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 34.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed Yes | 31c | 32.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked Yes | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 77c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 79c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 79c | 23.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked No | 71c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked No | 78c | 22.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…1783backed No | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 75c | 15.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.