Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x538cba9d84eadccb185f5fa84d6cc5cd8ea30e21cb48b8e828be2e51643a9d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,031 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 0c | 10,995$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 736.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 72c | 604.64$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.49 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 530$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 46c | 283.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 49c | 252.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 41c | 242.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 178.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 61c | 167.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 166$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 162.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 154.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 66c | 151.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 39c | 144.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 141$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 58c | 130.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…71a0backed No | 39c | 128.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 105.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 42c | 103.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 61c | 99.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 36c | 84.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 39c | 76.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 70.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 79c | 69.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 73c | 63.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 41c | 60.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 56.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 22c | 55.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked No | 47c | 53.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 55c | 52.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 28c | 51.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 49.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 47.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…4387backed No | 67c | 44.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed Yes | 75c | 42.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 60c | 41.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 34c | 41.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 41.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 65c | 35.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…f30bbacked Yes | 50c | 34.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 40c | 30.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 29.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 74c | 24.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…6530backed Yes | 72c | 17.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 77c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.