Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceff6a3f03ce7b01ec6639c9471a60b423cdd326cabfd19aa78a52e0c46b854e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4204…165abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 40c | 497.47$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.33 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 246.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 184.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 48c | 173.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 50c | 170.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 7c | 145.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 58c | 137.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 126.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 102.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 56c | 89.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 35c | 89.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 87.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 64c | 77.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4efbbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 72.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 72.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 70c | 67.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 66.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 66.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 62c | 65.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 56.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…7283backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 27c | 51.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7153…3b55backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2832…f488backed No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 31c | 41.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 41.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 37.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…f6e1backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 30.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 45c | 26.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked No | 66c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 44c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 57c | 22.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 60c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…4fa4backed Yes | 59c | 19.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 55c | 18.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…aa2fbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.