Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc194a31fb32a7225231b4ecf62483d34d8cd9b14abf6d6e6a18e44a743ccac28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 364.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 70c | 363.47$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 26c | 277.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 48c | 242.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 235.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 46c | 229.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 133.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 77c | 129.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 123.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 109.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 43c | 77.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 70.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 70.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 69.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 69c | 69.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 66.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 60.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 59.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 59.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 59.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 54.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 52.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 51.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 35c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 49.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…e3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 69c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 41.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 40.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 29c | 36.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 35.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 34.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 69c | 34.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 33.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 32.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 31.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 29.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 70c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 69c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 61c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 71c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 74c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.