Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf0bd23cf29efb68f45eaa850a7b96b2e63d4334150d59395168e221b80c97db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Vacherot, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Machac | 0c | 4,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vacherot | 57c | 4,272$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.24 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…99c4backed Machac | 51c | 3,924$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Machac | 62c | 2,150$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Machac | 18c | 1,999$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.82 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Vacherot | 25c | 1,197$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.5 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Machac | 73c | 1,166$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.39 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Vacherot | 72c | 1,004$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.11 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Vacherot | 27c | 806.47$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.72 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Machac | 72c | 726.51$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.03 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vacherot | 70c | 555.56$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Vacherot | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Vacherot | 28c | 315$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Vacherot | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Machac | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Machac | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Vacherot | 27c | 154$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Machac | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Machac | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Machac | 30c | 83.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vacherot | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Machac | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Vacherot | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Machac | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Vacherot | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Machac | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Machac | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Machac | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Machac | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Vacherot | 36c | 35.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.