MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf14de69ed83ef894039a093306c33447766f4cd27a336fcea8fbbbbb49e0ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 1,720$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 1,606$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 1,433$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 48c | 1,153$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.33 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 944.14$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…513fbacked Over | 52c | 833.33$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 430$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 49c | 410.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 66c | 260.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 246.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 48c | 172$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 79c | 166$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 133.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 49c | 32.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 65c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.