MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b3895d66f246b5271058ebb0aa763abc9a6f3c84b7ac4c535b5be17f07d26d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 3,763$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 3,242$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 2,560$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.04 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 2,399$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 16c | 1,545$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 1,326$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 1,089$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.4 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 883.04$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.06 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 729.96$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 713.56$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 623.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.41 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 453.22$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 419.11$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 405.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.19 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 343.5$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.04 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 339.34$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.33 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 169.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 161$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 154$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 153.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 120.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 113.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 102.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 88.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 86.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 79.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 65.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 47.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 45.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…16a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 43.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…b9d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 31.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 20.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 20.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.