Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: SAR (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf17b0a342966ce3af0c328de91f11d50c6fccc7fe799e8a780efe734da59633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof South America Rejects, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed South America Rejects | 55c | 709.27$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx | 44c | 571.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked South America Rejects | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed South America Rejects | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Team Lynx | 44c | 335.82$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Team Lynx | 45c | 333.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.42 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Team Lynx | 41c | 323.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 319.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…e024backed South America Rejects | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Team Lynx | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Lynx | 41c | 188.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects | 61c | 161.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed South America Rejects | 56c | 75.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed South America Rejects | 59c | 49.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Team Lynx | 43c | 46.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked South America Rejects | 57c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Team Lynx | 45c | 24.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: SAR (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.