Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf26e41091a8417e0ca94d27e4ee4fa79395299ea713fc2fed384c070943b098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 12c | 3,082$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.91 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,203$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 15c | 833.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 17c | 722.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 7c | 699.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 74c | 676$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 596.23$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 14c | 560.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 8c | 393.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 11c | 338.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 8c | 300.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 292.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 7c | 219.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 18c | 208.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 20c | 200.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 155.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 140.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 134.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 124.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 116.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 113$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 103.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 91.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 75.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 50.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 34.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…ef0dbacked No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.