TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b4…e56dbacked No68c1,572$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.0672042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No7c683.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7428324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes16c628.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes32c624.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.9911240.2%45 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c611.44$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.564,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes78c514.05$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes44c482.86$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c420.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7438243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes35c417.31$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No42c364.19$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.742,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes23c357.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.0512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c339.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.526744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.59938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes33c246.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.96845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes26c245.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.791,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes31c214.21$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.772,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No21c200.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.042,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes65c192.43$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8740265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes26c189.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.744,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes80c187.96$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.964776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c151.52$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.195,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes25c150$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No16c148.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes32c146.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10011438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes28c140$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.225332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c139.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes69c134.9$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8222849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c125.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.686,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes70c114.39$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8214645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c110$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.354,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6053…6af8backed Yes71c105$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.12785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No46c102.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.461,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4849646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6912629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3543932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed No61c99.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6117028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c96.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ba…2f9abacked No19c83.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83828.9%11 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c77.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes36c71.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.843357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.515,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…b631backed No73c69.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.342650%13 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes36c63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4628742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No65c61.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.182339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.253,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No68c59.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c57.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.245,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No57c55.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d07…36bfbacked Yes76c54.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.182157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No49c53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.921,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes30c51.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.45922%13 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes46c51.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8713544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No38c50.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3427552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.515534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Yes36c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.891346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No60c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2735063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed No70c46.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.347945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes33c45.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9552446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0123146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0511947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3320056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes72c44.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes50c42.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4710447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c41.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.311838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c38.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.574,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes48c38.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.783040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked No66c38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.932817.9%5 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-69%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes27c37.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.349043.3%39 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes51c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.262437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3547935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes72c34.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.57850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No74c33.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.71,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes45c31.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0412660.3%76 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes40c29.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.853327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes61c29.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4710463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x334d…7acbbacked No73c26.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes68c24.18$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.789176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed No68c23.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No52c23.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.152,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No73c20.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0318671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes74c20.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4121361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No74c20.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0815369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bca…c6dabacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No73c13.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1629351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.