Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56847ec421bd78185dcacc0af4f0ec58e079361e398f6bbd46560cd41fb0c0ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 14c | 1,033$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 10c | 726.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 524.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 24c | 436.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 377.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 26c | 326.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 69c | 314.17$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 20c | 311$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 18c | 285.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 262.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…50b6backed Yes | 8c | 239.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 231.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 230.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 12c | 226.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 11c | 223.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 14c | 184.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 9c | 179.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 11c | 139.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 131.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 12c | 130.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 10c | 103.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 24c | 92.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 16c | 86.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…8377backed Yes | 12c | 83.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 16c | 71.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 60.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 53.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 37c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 72c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 38°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.